I like North Carolina as Florida State has faced 3 teams with run defenses this year and have struggled against each one with a 1-2 record with their only win being by 5 to Boston College who has an awful offense. North Carolina has the defense and play makers to contain Florida State and make Christian Ponder beat them which won't happen the way Ponder has been playing. DT Quinton Coples and linebackers Kevin REddick and Zach Brown will make some stops at the line of scrimmage to hold this game within winning distance all game. QB TJ Yates has been successful against some big defenses already this year that includes LSU and I think he'll come up with a surprisingly good game. This game is a little inflated do to UNC losing to William and Mary a week ago in the 4th quarter 17-7 before pulling off the come back. That has the public and oddsmakers doubting a very good defensive team one that has more offense than a year ago. I think this game is played within a touch down.
This is another error in my opinion. Joe Pa goes for win #400 and the schedule has finally gotten easier. Penn State has seen an average defense ranked #39 in total defense and the last two weeks they have faced beatable defense much like Northwestern and they put up 74 points. RB Evan Royster was finally himself rushing for 150 yards against Michigan. QB Robert Bolden will return and will have a big game against Northwestern secondary that is very beatable especially late. They'll have to honor Royster which won't be pretty for the rest of the defense.
Don't get me wrong Dan Persa has been really impressive was leading the nation in pass efficiency but that is going to start going the other way now that he's facing some decent pass defense. Penn STate is ranked 25th and will be the best he's faced all year as an average 75th pass defense just is not impressive. They have had one common opponent in Minnesota each team won. Penn State won by 12 while Northwestern won by 1. All 6 of Penn STates other games against D1 teams have been against quality teams going bowling like Alabama, Kent State, Temple, Iowa, Illinios and Michigan. Northwestern just can't compare to that and Penn State has all motivation on their side as well.
